Gambling Tip #1: Motivation is Key
By: Myles | August 12th, 2010In my inaugural post here at the offside, let me first state that I am not a hardcore soccer fan like most on this site. Being Canadian I did not grow up with the game.
I do not think that it is a better sport than baseball or hockey, or more exciting than “American Football.” And I cringe when writers drag on about it being the “beautiful game.”
That is why I think that it makes me a good fit for the gambling section here. I can approach a soccer game, (sorry I meant “football match”) without any strong bias.
And just because I am not a hardcore fan, it does not mean that I lack knowledge or insight . I once canceled lunch with my family to watch Mariboor play CM Celjie on a horrible online stream, simply because I had inside info on the over.
That was the 2010 Slovenian cup semi final for those of you so called “hardcore fans”. Let’s just say there is more value on betting on teams that you can’t pronounce than on the Chelseas and Manchester Uniteds of the world.
Anyways with all the major leagues soon getting into action, I’ll be providing various tips on “what to do” and “what not to do” when it comes to sports betting. I will also add in feature articles, match previews, and my own personal bankroll challenge. Hopefully through my success or failure this season, you will learn a lot about gambling and become a better punter yourself.
With that off my chest here is Gambling Tip #1
Gambling Tip #1
Motivation is Key
Before each match it is important to know the mindset of a club and what their goals are.
Are they looking ahead in their schedule?
Is this a must win?
Are they playing for the draw?
These are all elements that can not be found in stats, but require deeper insight. Such was the case with Hartlepool United vs Sheffield United in Carling Cup action this past Wednesday.
Hartlepool was nearly relegated in League One last season finishing 20th, while Sheffield United was 8th in The Championship, so having Sheffield United as the heavy favorite to win at +110 (bet 100 win 110) seemed justified.
Also add in the news of having Arsenal reserve member Kyle Bartley resigning on a loan deal and you have what seemed like a solid play.
But factor in motivation, Manager Kevin Blackwell has stated that his goal for the season is promotion.
After a 1-1 draw with Cardiff City to open Championship action, there was a strong possibility that they were looking beyond this midweek Carling Cup game towards their home opener against QPR. It did not help either that several key players were off play international friendlies that very same day.
The midweek match was a whole different story for the heavy underdogs Hartlepool. This marked the home opener for the League One squad and they had shown a bit of promise in their 0-0 draw against Rochdale. The match was more offensive minded than the final score reads.
Also factor Carling Cup efforts in previous years on behalf of Hartlepool and you can tell that they were going to go all out in this game.
Basically the odds set were based on public perception and results from last year, rather than current motivation. Hartlepool ended up winning 2-0 and at +270 odds (bet 100 win 270) made many backers happy.
Hartlepool was not a guaranteed lock (nothing is, even if the game is fixed, I’ll talk about this in the future), but with the increased motivation, we were given a good price in a game that probably should have been even odds on both sides.
The old saying on sports betting goes “there is never a bad bet, just a bad price,” and finding out a team’s motivation, is one key to uncovering hidden value.
Category: Betting