MLS Value Plays

By: Myles | September 4th, 2010

   

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Most of America’s attention is on opening Saturday for college (American) football and soccer punters appear to have their attention on Euro qualifiers or are just taking a break.

However the MLS has somehow sneaked up today and provides some solid value plays. Anyways here are my plays for the day

Event: Chicago v Los Angeles (MLS)
Selection: Los Angeles
Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ +156

Reasoning

The first place Galaxy are on a two game slump right now and are a bit embarrassed from their 2-0 loss at home to Kansas City.

Landon Donovan stated “We don’t mind playing well and competing well and giving up a goal at some point and losing a game. That’s not the issue. The issue is, you don’t want to get outcompeted, especially on your home field.”

With that in mind the team will be taking this match against Chicago very seriously. Despite the recent slump LA is still the best road team in the MLS at 7-2-3, while Chicago isactually mediocre at home. Only DC United has a worst home record

I expect a low scoring affair and have the Galaxy with a 50% chance to win the game and the value on the payout justifies a wager.

(0.5 x 2.56) = 1.28

Event: DC United v Columbus Crew
Selection:Columbus
Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ +137

Reasoning

Both teams played each other in cup action on Wednesday and it wasn’t a pretty affair. The MLS’s worst team actually played well and if it wasn’t for a red card and some dirty play on behalf of Columbus they would have come out as a huge upset winner.

The Crew however are extra motivated and even though they played dirty, they have momentum here. DC United will be too focused on what the referee calls for this game.

Revenge factor is a possibility but the Crew are more composed and just too talented. A Draw is a strong possibility and the Crew would be fine with this, but I actually think they have a 50% chance of winning this road game and the price makes sense for a wager

(0.50 x 2.37) = 1.18

Event: Colorado Rapids v Chivas USA (MLS)
Selection: Colorado
Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ -120

Reasoning

Omar Cummings got some bad news as he is still in the process of his Green Card application and can not leave the country to play for Jamaica.

This bodes well for the Colorado Rapids who are on a 7 game home unbeaten streak and will no doubt benefit from Cummings.

The Rapids are coming off an explosive 3-0 win over Houston, while Chivas are 2-2-7 on the road and are coming off a mid week cup blowout loss to Seattle this past Wednesday. They also flew in late to Denver.

I don’t usually like taking plays less than +100, but Chivas after the cup loss are just hoping for the season to end.

I have Colorado with a 60% chance of winning this game and the payouts justifies a wager

(0.60 x 1.83) = 1.09

Also will be Playing

Canada +189 in an International friendly vs Peru

extra motivation for Canada here despite talent difference