Wednesday – Arsenal vs. Barcelona

Wednesday – AS Roma vs. Shakhtar Donetsk

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Chelsea has not been perfect to start 2010/11, but they’ve been close, their only blemish being a 1-0 away loss to Manchester City. In fact, it’s Man City who sit closest to the Blues, four points down. Just a point below them is perennial contender Manchester United, followed two more points behind by Arsenal and Spurs. West Brom is also on 11 points, but no one is giving them a realistic shot at the title – they’re just happy to be well above their relegation rivals.

Man City has a number of things going for them, first and not least that they are the one side to handle Chelsea so far. Arsenal has already lost to the Blues, 2-0 at Stamford Bridge in the last match before the international break. United can’t be discounted, especially so early, and there’s a reason that the betting houses have them above City in second position – they’ve gotten where they are this season so far essentially without the services of one Wayne Rooney. When he gets back to form, that’s a different team.

This weekend provides a serious test for Chelsea, as they head out for a tough road trip to Villa Park. It might even be a good time to put down some money on a draw or some result for Aston Villa. Chelsea faces the trip with both Didier Drogba and Lampard out injured. Yossi Benayoun is also out, reportedly for six months or more. Very few other teams could absorb the loss of three high-powered offensive players like that, but so far this season, Florent Malouda has been just as deadly as Drogba, and Salomon Kalou isn’t far behind. Still, especially with a Champions League match coming mid-week, this could be a let-down weekend for the Blues. It’s a hard one to call.

If they survive the congested schedule ahead of them over the next month, Chelsea should be fairly comfortable. They have more than a game lead over all of their rivals, who know that they will have to stay perfect and wait for the Blues to make mistakes. Mistakes, though, have been few and far between so far this season at Stamford Bridge.

There always comes a point in one’s sports gambling career when you think you’ve hit an all time low.

Usually it comes in the form of a big loss or guilt from being part of a fix

Unfortunately none of the above applies to me. I’m fairly good with money management and don’t really have enough planning skills or trust in players to fix a game.

In fact my gambling guilt is much much lower….

On Monday night I posted on my twitter account and in the comments section here at the offside that I was going to make a rare two unit bet on the Canadian Women’s under 17 team to beat Ghana.

My sportsbook offered the odds and with limited plays on the board I was like “heck why not!”

So I did my research and found that backing Canada was a strong play. You’d be surprised that when you type “under 17 women” on google, that it actually leads to FIFA’s site and not something else.

Canada had just recently beat the American team, and Ghana was just happy to be in the tournament.

Non-developed countries have difficulties in promoting women’s sports so just being at the u17 world cup was already a victory

Meanwhile, the Canadians were carrying momentum from beating the always tough USA team and with Brazil and Ireland up next on the schedule (both tough teams, I did my research), the full three points was must.

Ghana gave a fight, but Canada ended up winning 1-0. So while I found myself cheering on my bet, there was a sense of guilt.

I mean I devoted a good amount of time on researching teenage girls. Ok feel free to make jokes, my friends all did, even the ones that took my betting advice for this game

But who is worse. I mean Sky Sports and ESPN go nuts when talking about young teenage boy prospects in soccer, basketball, and american football so why do I feel guilt betting on a women’s under 17 game?

In fact my bet shows my support of gender equality and is very progressive

Screw it I don’t feel guilty at all. I won two units! I paid for rent thanks to this wager. And you can bet that I’ll wager more on this tournament as there is huge value. More than Euro Qualifiers or the EPL.

So cheers to woman’s sports and cheers to gambling for making woman’s sports matter (why do you think the WNBA is still around)

My plays for today

Albania (Euro Cham) -1½,-2 -130
Croatia (Euro Cham) -1 -109
France (Euro Cham) +160
Honduras (Friendly) +154

highlights of Canada u17 women’s win over Ghana

Kara Lang, once an U17 Canada team member, now over 18

Most of America’s attention is on opening Saturday for college (American) football and soccer punters appear to have their attention on Euro qualifiers or are just taking a break.

However the MLS has somehow sneaked up today and provides some solid value plays. Anyways here are my plays for the day

Event: Chicago v Los Angeles (MLS)
Selection: Los Angeles
Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ +156

Reasoning

The first place Galaxy are on a two game slump right now and are a bit embarrassed from their 2-0 loss at home to Kansas City.

Landon Donovan stated “We don’t mind playing well and competing well and giving up a goal at some point and losing a game. That’s not the issue. The issue is, you don’t want to get outcompeted, especially on your home field.”

With that in mind the team will be taking this match against Chicago very seriously. Despite the recent slump LA is still the best road team in the MLS at 7-2-3, while Chicago isactually mediocre at home. Only DC United has a worst home record

I expect a low scoring affair and have the Galaxy with a 50% chance to win the game and the value on the payout justifies a wager.

(0.5 x 2.56) = 1.28

Event: DC United v Columbus Crew
Selection:Columbus
Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ +137

Reasoning

Both teams played each other in cup action on Wednesday and it wasn’t a pretty affair. The MLS’s worst team actually played well and if it wasn’t for a red card and some dirty play on behalf of Columbus they would have come out as a huge upset winner.

The Crew however are extra motivated and even though they played dirty, they have momentum here. DC United will be too focused on what the referee calls for this game.

Revenge factor is a possibility but the Crew are more composed and just too talented. A Draw is a strong possibility and the Crew would be fine with this, but I actually think they have a 50% chance of winning this road game and the price makes sense for a wager

(0.50 x 2.37) = 1.18

Event: Colorado Rapids v Chivas USA (MLS)
Selection: Colorado
Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ -120

Reasoning

Omar Cummings got some bad news as he is still in the process of his Green Card application and can not leave the country to play for Jamaica.

This bodes well for the Colorado Rapids who are on a 7 game home unbeaten streak and will no doubt benefit from Cummings.

The Rapids are coming off an explosive 3-0 win over Houston, while Chivas are 2-2-7 on the road and are coming off a mid week cup blowout loss to Seattle this past Wednesday. They also flew in late to Denver.

I don’t usually like taking plays less than +100, but Chivas after the cup loss are just hoping for the season to end.

I have Colorado with a 60% chance of winning this game and the payouts justifies a wager

(0.60 x 1.83) = 1.09

Also will be Playing

Canada +189 in an International friendly vs Peru

extra motivation for Canada here despite talent difference

Anwyays so/so start to September going 1-1 in US Open cup plays, as Columbus didn’t win until Extra Time, but I’m taking my shot with some draws in Euro Qualifying

Lithuania v Scotland (Euro Qual)
Selection Draw
Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ +229

Reasoning

Whether international or club, Scottish teams are known for their poor play on the road. However after losing Norway back in 2009 in World Cup qualifying they put in a decent 2-0 performance over Macedonia and only loss 1-0 to the Netherlands.

The crowd at Lithuania will be tough, but this is a Scottish team with a new focus and they will play defensively in an attempt to sneak out with 1 point.

Iceland v Norway (Euro Qual)
Selection Draw
Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ +231

Reasoning

When these played in World Cup qualifying both matches ended in Draws, that doesn’t necessarily mean that a third will occur, but draw backers can take some solace in some key offensive players missing on both sides of the ball

Norway will not have Carew, while Iceland will be without the services of Gudjohnsen

Norway has more depth and talent, but usually a road favorite missing some offesnive fire power is a good time to take the draw.

Nope we’re not talking about Tennis, but rather four lovely teams that play in the MLS

anyways here are my plays to kick off the month of September

DC United v Columbus Crew (US Open Cup)
Selection: Columbus Crew (US Cup) to win
Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ +171

Reasoning

The MLS East leading Columbus Crew just went through a tough August which saw them go 3-1-2 in 6 games. They seemed to fade towards the end of the month as well scoring no goals in their last two games.

Tonight in the US Open Cup semifinals, they take on DC United, who oddly enough they encounter again in MLS action on Saturday.

DC United will be motivated for this game, as it is their only chance to make something of what has been a horrible season, however there is just too much of a class difference with 28 points separating the two teams in the MLS.

I feel that Columbus has about a 52% chance of winning this game and the price justifies a wager.

Seattle Sounders v Chivas USA (US Open Cup)
Selection: Seattle Sounders (US Cup) 2.00
Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ +100

Motivation and home field advantage is key in this US Open Cup semi final. Seattle have had a tough time in non-MLS play where they had two recent losses in CONCACAF group play.

They did however break out of that slump with a key 2-1 come from behind home win over Chicago this past Saturday. The Sounders should bring their top game today, especially with the city of Seattle being the host for the Cup final.

Seattle has the highest average attendance in the MLS so the home crowd should help and also player of the week Fredy Montero is expected to be in the line up

I feel that the Sounders have about a 55% to 57% chance of winning this game and the price justifies a wager.

cheers and happy betting

Anyways for today

Brage (SWE-S) -½,-1 -110
Chateauroux (FRA-2) +153
Le Mans/Grenoble draw +197
Inter (ITA-A) -1 +110

anyways added two plays for today just before kickoff

Juventus (ITA-A) +134

Aston Villa (ENG-P) +175

both risking 50.

goog luck

Happy to hit Tours FC yesterday with a 2-0 win, anyways I have locked two plays overnight

Arsenal (ENG-P) -1 +122
50.00 to win 61.00

Blackburn on the road will be tough, but Arsenal are coming off an impressive win over Blackpool and with Chelsea running over teams and Man City and Man U hovering behind, they’ll want to make sure they get three points on the road each time they play a mid table team.

Lyon (FRA-1) +134
50.00 to win 67.00

Lyon just signed pretty boy above Gourcuff and seem to be getting their form back after last week’s win. Win or lose, you won’t see Lyon at this value too often, even on the road

For an in depth look check out John’s Lyon Lorrient match preview

later on I may add one more play from the following

Fullham +138
St Et +110
Valenciennes +124
Helsingborg (SWE-A) +185
Nurnberg (GER-1) +102
Hoffenheim (GER-1) +130

cheers and best of lucks with your bets